Thursday, June 18, 2009

Markets explained!

OK one more....here is a great email and my response:


An Easily Understandable Explanation of Derivative Markets:


Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in the city. She realizes that
virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can
no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up
with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay
later.

She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting
the customers loans).

Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing
strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into
Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in the city.

By providing her customers' freedom from immediate payment demands,
Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially
increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.
Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that
these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's
borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the
debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders transform these
customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities
are then bundled and traded on international security markets. Naive
investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as
AAA secured bonds are really the debts of
unemployed alcoholics.

Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities
soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading
brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk
manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand
payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs
Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being
unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since,
Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy..
The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%.
The collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and prevents it
from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the
community.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment
extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the various BOND
securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad
debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a
family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is
taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays
off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their
respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion no-strings
attached cash infusion from the Government.

The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied
on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers.

Now, do you understand?


From Me:

Yes! It's that simple. An accomplished economist once said the idea of money is so simple it boggles your mind...this is the twisted, inflated, false nature of our markets and essentially our money. It has now reached the point of complete lunacy, perhaps complete failure. And if it doesn't fail now it will in a few years once again. The crashes are coming more often now and involve more money.

What's even more simple is the cure. It's simply to go back to the gold standard as established in The Constitution. Politicians and bankers don't like the gold standard because it restricts their spending. The gold standard relies on a real commodity, gold metal, which is in limited supply, therefore spending is limited. Politicians hate limited spending because it shows how little power they have; how little power they are supposed to have as...once again, established in The Constitution.

Pardon my lunacy here but.....if your money is tied to gold, then any bubble will not get very big because there is only so much gold available. So, production or investment will have to be decreased somewhere, when production is increased elsewhere.

It's like sucking a shared milkshake through a straw; you pull it up into your mouth but now there is less for another to drink. The big investment will cause the money, the production, to be taken from somewhere else to keep the bubble going. Politicians want to have all the answers, they want to be reelected and banks want more money, more power....so they don't want to conform to natural economic laws. So they abuse the system to our detriment. They print more money, they cause inflation, they play games, and it began a long time ago.

I think economically we are now at the point of no return. Someone said it will now feel like an elephant slowly sitting down on you as prices rise, jobs do not return, and incomes stay low. But not only us, many countries are hurting by using the central bank/interest rate, system. Only thing is, they haven't abused it as much as we have, and to the extent that they have abused it, it was greatly through the sponsorship of U.S. influence.

So what does the middle class Joe and Suzy do? We should try to end the Fed, slash spending, and do away with most taxation. Right now the government has usurped all power and we are nothing. That is precisely what our nations forefathers did not want to happen again.

Of course, everyone has the liberty to choose what they want to do about this; be a sheep and continue being ignorant like many others, or speak up and share your knowledge. I choose to speak up and live according to what I value. I choose liberty. I choose freedom. I choose happiness. I choose to follow our Constitution as done for many years before career politicians and bankers stole out country from us.

But that's just me.

For Liberty,
Bill

Monday, June 15, 2009

Explore

I've discovered that it is not very easy to get online here at YNP. I basically have to sit in my car to get the best reception for the available internet access here.

I will still write, but after a lot of thought I've decided to no longer post my writings. I'll post my pictures though either here or somewhere else.

To summarize what my efforts to find truth and liberty, I've learned that it's all there, it's always there, and has always been there if you want it. However, it will never sustainably coexist in the world as you know it. "The world as everyone knows it" is the common held beliefs and fears formed through your daily routine. It is the belief that you must have certain things to have a meaningful, protected life.

In the words of Bill Hicks, "Life is like a ride in an amusement park....it's just a ride." I intend to row, row, row my boat gently down the stream. Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily, life is but a .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMWWeS-j43A

Enjoy!

Friday, June 5, 2009

Unemployment Numbers

This is ridiculous, the state run media has declared a move in the unemployment rate from 8.9% to 9.4% as a sign the recession is ending!  How could they say that...on every news show?  

Check out these charts, especially the 2nd one which shows how we are approaching a worse scenario then in the 40's...BUT....the unemployment numbers are not the same now...the gov doesn't include many who are still unemployed in order to make the numbers look better.  They do this for inflation too. 

These links will give you the truth:


We are actually rapidly approaching the Great Depression 25% mark:


There is one hope...we could turn things around b/c the gov is throwing so much printed money at everything.  In that case it also sucks because we will head for massive inflation one way or another.  You can't be recklessly, unbelievably, fiscally irresponsible and simply return things back to "the good life". Those times are over.  Remember, it took 3.5 years to hit bottom after the crash in 1929.

Store food & water, save money.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

The Fed & You

2 videos, I like the first. Copy and paste into your address window.





The world without the U.S. dollar as world reserve currency

This is from Michael Murphy:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/127730-heads-up-on-the-dollar-today-the-world-s-reserve-currency-is-changing">http://seekingalpha.com/article/127730-heads-up-on-the-dollar-today-the-world-s-reserve-currency-is-changing


U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform, a specialist advisory committee that includes representatives from the U.S. government, will advise today that the world should begin to move away from the U.S. dollar as the world's sole reserve currency. They will suggest either an international currency unit based on several countries' currencies, including the dollar (their preferred alternative), or a currency based on the Special Drawing Rights issued by the International Monetary Fund.

Their stated reason will be that having the dollar as THE reserve currency unfairly burdens American policymakers at a time they are trying to deal with huge financial problems. Unfortunately, both Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner have made comments from time to time that gives the U.N. Commission cover for this position. Both Bernanke and Geithner have pointed out that if every other country is going to save in dollars, the U.S. has to run a deficit in dollars.

Avinash Persaud is a currency specialist and a member of the panel of experts. He is a former currency chief at JPMorgan. Here's a video of him at the Reuters 2009 Funds Summit in Luxembourg last week.

Their actual reason for doing this is distrust and anger at the financial mess the U.S. has foisted on the rest of the world, plus a deep fear in China, Japan, the Middle East and Russia that we will simply inflate away the value of the huge amount of Treasury debt they hold. I think that is Bernanke's unspoken plan, so they are right to worry about it.

To the extent the UN Commission has any special knowledge of the situation, it also may be true that things are much worse than the U.S. government is letting on. John Mauldin recently said the government's attitude towards the voters can be summed up by Jack Nicholson's line in A Few Good Men: “You can't handle the truth!” I disagree; I don't believe the government has any special knowledge at all. I think they are so out of touch that they really have little understanding about what is going on. But that's a discussion for another day.

The UN Commission seems to think this is the moment that the world can orchestrate a managed, relatively pain-free withdrawal of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. They see the alternative as a free-for-all withdrawal from U.S. assets as our major creditors dump both dollars and Treasuries. That could cause a severe run on the dollar and lead to even worse economic conditions for Americans, probably causing hyperinflation and global destabilization.

The presentation of their report today may give the dollar quite a hit yet be very good for stocks. I know this is counter-intuitive, but inflation is good for asset values and bad for debt values, so while some foreigners may sell all U.S. assets, most will just sell Treasuries and buy stocks. More details should come out at the G20 Summit in London in April.

Changing the reserve status of the dollar would have widespread effects on The Dollar. The value of the dollar will slide, perhaps by 20% against other currencies and 40% or more against gold and other commodities. That's good for U.S. exports, but bad for Main Street America. Any slip-up and hyperinflation becomes a real possibility. At the same time, regional currencies similar to the euro will spring up that are exchangeable into the world currency, but give the regions some autonomy – under the “benign” guidance of the most powerful country. The Middle East and China have indicated they are ready to introduce regional currencies based on the khaleeji and yuan respectively, and Russia would be eager to use the rouble as a regional reserve asset that would give them more control over the former USSR countries.

Any currency like the Swiss franc or pound sterling that is not part of a regional currency will be left out and suffer. The dollar may have a future in a North American or even North and South American regional reserve asset.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy

The U.S. government will have less economic leeway to deal with the current financial mess, because excess Federal debt creation will lead immediately to a lower dollar and higher imported inflation.

Longer term, the government will have to find another way to pay its debts than just selling Treasuries to the Fed. Most likely, they will have no choice but to tax U.S. citizens and businesses more heavily.

The Bond Market

Treasury bond yields will start rising immediately, as the Bernanke Fed becomes the only buyer. If the dollar really does lose its reserve currency status, Bernanke's plan to print whatever money it takes will be thwarted.

The Stock Market

In spite of weak demand for physical goods, the obvious inflationary implications of losing the dollar's reserve status would spark a major asset allocation shift from bonds to stocks and other assets.

The price of gold and silver will go up as they are used more as a currency asset, competitive with the world and regional currencies. The price of oil and all other internationally traded commodities will go up in most currencies, and go up a lot in US dollars.

American lifestyles and financial habits will be forced to change radically in a world where we have to pay as we go. Longer term, economic power and wealth will shift from the West to the East and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Well said

I want to say Peter's video blogs are genius but in reality it's simple logic, which can sound so friggin' brilliant sometimes.  I can't believe more people don't hear him.

Monday, May 25, 2009

The Fed & Ron Paul

QUOTES OF THE WEEK:

From Congressman Ron Paul, in his weekly “Texas Straight Talk” column, posted on his House of Representatives website on May 18th:

“Fundamentally, you cannot defend the Federal Reserve and the free market at the same time. The Fed negates the very foundation of a free market by artificially manipulating the price and supply of money – the lifeblood of the economy. In a free market, interest rates, like the price of any other consumer good, are decentralized and set by the market. The only legitimate, Constitutional role of government in monetary policy is to protect the integrity of the monetary unit and defend against counterfeiters.”

“No politician or central banker, no matter how brilliant, is smart enough to know more than the market itself. The failure of central economic planning has been witnessed over and over. It is frankly beyond me why we ever agreed to try it again.

To understand how unwise it is to have the Federal Reserve, one must first understand the magnitude of the privileges they have. They have been given the power to create money, by the trillions, and to give it to their friends, under any terms they wish, with little or no meaningful oversight or accountability. Thus the loudest arguments against greater transparency are likely to come from those friends, and understandably so. 

However, it is the responsibility of every member of Congress to represent the interests of the people that sent them to Washington and find out what has been happening with our money. As the branch of government with the power of the purse, we really have no other reasonable choice when the economy is in the shape it is in.”
 
. . . and from Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, in remarks posted on his website on May 18th:

“The US national debt was $9.364 trillion a year ago.  Today it is $11.256 trillion.  That means that over the last 12 months we've added $1.89 trillion to the national debt.  I figure that over the next two fiscal years the US national debt should rise by $3 trillion from the current $11.256 trillion to around $14 to 15 trillion.  I figure the average interest on the national debt is around 4%.  Well, 4% of $14 trillion is over half a trillion dollars a year.  How in God's name is the US going to attract over half a trillion dollars every year to carry our national debt?  My answer -- higher taxes and inflation.  When you think about it, this is one major reason why the government doesn't want gold to sky-rocket.  An exploding price for gold tells the world that the US and its financing is backed against the wall, and that inflation plus higher taxes are the only ways out.”